India-Pakistan tensions are escalating after cross-border strikes. China, Pakistan’s “ironclad friend”, is backing Islamabad with missile delivery and diplomatic support, sending a clear message to India and safeguarding its strategic interests in the region, says columnist Syed Fazl-e-Haider.

India on 7 May launched missile strikes at six locations inside Pakistan in retaliation for an attack last month that killed 26 tourists at Pahalgam in Indian-administered Kashmir. According to Pakistani reports, Pakistan immediately responded to India’s late-night strikes by bringing down at least five Indian jets. With heavy exchange of fire between the two armies on their border, things are escalating into an all-out war between nuclear-armed rivals. 

Without having concrete evidence, India blamed Pakistan for the Pahalgam attack in the Himalayan region. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi publicly vowed to pursue the attackers “to the ends of the earth”. On the other hand, Pakistan warned that any misadventure by India would meet a strong and befitting response. 

China supports Pakistan on diplomatic front

Being Pakistan’s all-weather friend and strategic partner, China rose to Pakistan’s defence at a time when the Modi government implied that the Pahalgam attack was due to cross-border linkages, pointing at Pakistan, and the Indian media created war hysteria, bashing and blaming Pakistan for the attack. Islamabad denied involvement in the attack, saying it would welcome an independent and neutral investigation into the incident. 

China has been closely monitoring the developments following the Pahalgam attack. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, in a telephone conversation on 27 April with his Pakistani counterpart Ishaq Dar, strongly supported Pakistan’s demand for an impartial investigation and said, “As an ironclad friend and an all-weather strategic cooperative partner, China fully understands Pakistan’s legitimate security concerns and supports Pakistan in safeguarding its sovereignty and security interests.”

Yi’s statement subtly suggested that India should consider engaging with China to address its issues with Pakistan, rather than seeking Western involvement. 

Yi’s statement subtly suggested that India should consider engaging with China to address its issues with Pakistan, rather than seeking Western involvement. China’s foreign ministry on 7 May found India’s missile strikes inside Pakistan “regrettable”.

China’s military assistance to Pakistan 

Amid escalating India-Pakistan tensions in the aftermath of Pahalgam attack, China made an urgent delivery of long-range PL-15 missiles to Pakistan Air Force (PAF). The delivered PL-15 are BVR (Beyond Visual Range) air-to-air missiles, which were sourced directly from China’s People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF). The country’s JF-17 Block III fighter jets have been armed with PL-15 missiles.

By supplying Pakistan with military equipment and weapons amid dangerous escalations on the Pakistan-India border, Beijing actually sent India a message that an attack on Pakistan would be an attack on its interests in Pakistan.

Military cooperation is a mainstay of the China-Pakistan strategic partnership. As the main supplier of military equipment to Pakistan, China delivered 47% of its arms exports to the South Asian country during the 2017-2021 period. In 2021, China provided Pakistan with multi-role J-10C fighters in a move to further strengthen Pakistan’s air defence. 

Though a threat of a nuclear war has been existent in the potential conflict between nuclear-armed India and Pakistan, China is one of the key factors preventing India from engaging in a long-term conflict with its arch rival.

A full-scale war between India and Pakistan could ruin Beijing’s strategic plans to import Middle Eastern oil through Pakistan’s Arabian Sea port of Gwadar.

War poses a threat to China’s strategic interests 

A war between India and Pakistan could put at stake nearly US$30 billion investment China so far has made in Pakistan under its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The US$62 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), the flagship project of China’s BRI, is currently in the second phase of development.

China’s key interest in the CPEC has been the diversification of energy trade routes to and from the oil-rich Middle East. The CPEC can provide it with an alternative to the Strait of Malacca. China can use Pakistan’s Gwadar Port for the arrival of its energy shipments from the Middle East. From Gwadar, the energy shipments could reach China through the proposed projects under CPEC such as Gwadar-Kashgar oil pipeline.

A full-scale war between India and Pakistan could ruin Beijing’s strategic plans to import Middle Eastern oil through Pakistan’s Arabian Sea port of Gwadar. The control over Gwadar port (which Beijing obtained a 40-year lease to operate in 2017) makes China a key player in the race for dominance over sea lanes traversing the Indian Ocean.

The port lies just 624 nautical kilometres east of the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway between the Gulf of Oman and the Persian Gulf. China considers the development of Gwadar port, along with the modernisation of the Pakistan Navy (PN), very important to safeguard BRI sea routes. China is equipping the Pakistan Navy with advanced frigates to ensure the security of its oil imports from the Persian Gulf.

Beijing could not allow India, the West’s counterweight to a rising China, to pose a threat to its strategic interests associated with its presence and growing stakes in Pakistan.

New Delhi strongly opposes the development activities being carried out by China under CPEC in the disputed Gilgit-Baltistan region claimed by India.

China emerging as third party in India-Pakistan dispute over Kashmir

India-Pakistan clashes have once again highlighted the dispute over Kashmir, which is the root cause of tensions between the nuclear rivals. Both countries have fought three full-scale wars over Kashmir.

New Delhi accuses Islamabad of training and funding Kashmiri militant groups, a charge Pakistan denies. Pakistan alleges that India is denying Kashmiris the right to self-determination using the worst tools of state terrorism and oppression.

China has emerged as a third party in the Kashmir dispute since August 2019, when India unilaterally abolished the special autonomous status of the Indian-controlled Kashmir region. India divided the disputed region into two union territories: Jammu & Kashmir, and Ladakh.

Beijing vehemently opposed India’s move to create a separate Union Territory of Ladakh, which is claimed by China. Months after India’s unilateral move, China and India got stuck in a military standoff at the Himalayan border in 2020. Pakistan threw its weight behind China during the nearly four-year-long military standoff between China and India on their disputed Himalayan border.

The CPEC is supposed to enter China from Pakistan’s Gilgit-Baltistan region which borders China’s Xinjiang province. Gilgit-Baltistan is a part of disputed territory of Jammu and Kashmir. New Delhi strongly opposes the development activities being carried out by China under CPEC in the disputed Gilgit-Baltistan region claimed by India. Both Beijing and Islamabad see India’s presence and growing influence in border areas adjacent to China, India and Pakistan as a threat to the CPEC.

China is not expected to sit idle but it will openly come to Pakistan’s defence if current clashes between Pakistan and India further escalate into an all-out war between arch rivals.